It's an impressive field of candidates, any of whom could win any other year if the competition wasn't as fierce. There are 20-game winners if you're into that and the top pitchers for key categories like ERA, WHIP, innings and strikeouts all were split among four different players.
Bold italics indicate league leader in that category; the number at the bottom of their stats indicates how many times they ranked in the league's top 10 in pitching leader categories. At least four of those categories essentially are limited to relievers (saves, blown saves, games and holds) so those aren't included among the 47. Something else to keep in mind: There are other categories that pitchers don't want to be in the top 10 (e.g., walks, losses, home runs), and really, if you're in the top 10 in decisions, does it really matter that much (cough, 14-18 Max Scherzer)?
Voters can name 5 candidates on their ballots, with a 10-7-5-3-1 points system. We tried to pare down the possibilities to 10 candidates, listed in alphabetical order.
18-4, (.818)
1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
238 1/3 IP, 242 K, 68 BB
8.3 R/9
9.1 K/9
33 starts, 26 QS (.788)
2 CG, 1 ShO
33/47
In some categories, Arrieta and teammate Zach Greinke ranked 1-2 league-wide, making Jon Lester feel a bit left out. Surprisingly, Arrieta did not rank among the shutout leaders or K/BB ratio, and also didn't even lead his team in some categories. His primary competition for the McDonald might just come from within the same dugout.
Johnny Cueto, Vancouver
14-10, (.583)
3.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
253.0 IP, 209 K, 62 BB
10.9 R/9
7.4 K/9
34 starts, 21 QS (.618)
6 CG, 0 ShO
19/47
Cueto wasn't just Vancouver's workhorse, it was hard to keep up with his league-high 34 starts and 253 innings. He'll have to hope voters put more stock into those numbers than his low win total and pedestrian win percentage.
15-9, (.625)
2.09 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
246.0 IP, 199 K, 45 BB
8.2 R/9
7.3 K/9
33 starts, 25 QS (.758)
6 CG, 6 ShO
36/47
Greinke ranked within the top 10 in the league in 36 categories (strikeouts was not one of them). Voters might fall into two blocs when it comes to Greinke: Old-school voters might point to his 15 wins as too low while new-school SABR-metricians won't put as much stock into that as his league-best WHIP and R/9. In any other year, he could be a lock for the McDonald.
Hisashi Iwakuma, Allentown
19-10, (.655)
2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
239.2 IP, 185 K, 36 BB
9.4 R/9
6.9 K/9
32 starts, 25 QS (.719)
5 CG, 3 ShO
30/47
Just as the myth persists that "Chicks dig the long ball," some may think pitchers without monster strikeout totals or 20 wins must have small hands. The dark-horse Iwakuma doesn't get the headlines of teammate David Price and didn't lead the league in any one category but he ranked 4th in ERA and only Greinke had more shutouts.
Clayton Kershaw, Hoboken17-11, (.607)
3.46 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
234.1 IP, 299 K, 43 BB
9.4 R/9
11.5 K/9
33 starts, 21 QS (.636)
4 CG, 2 ShO
31/47
Despite an average 4.9 runs per game in his support (5th in the league), voters might wonder how he managed 11 losses with a DMBL-best 7.0 K/BB ratio.
Dallas Keuchel, Arkansas
20-5 (.800)
2.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
232.3 IP, 213 K, 67 BB
10.7 R/9
8.3 K/9
33 starts, 23 QS (.697)
3 CG, 2 ShO
28/47
Keuchel will probably sneak old-school votes away from Greinke for his win total but could have a tough time convincing new-school voters to look past his WHIP.
Corey Kluber, Sardine City
16-7, (.696)
3.01 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
218 IP, 228 K, 40 BB
10.2 R/9
9.4 K/9
32 starts, 20 QS (.690)
6 CG, 2 ShO
22/47
The Straphangers' workhorse has the strikeout totals to compete with anyone, paired with a WHIP that tied for 2nd in the league. He's one of only two candidates in the top 10 of average run support (and even there, he's 10th at 4.8) but his bugaboo was a league-high 37 doubles allowed to LHB.
David Price, Allentown
20-10, (.667)
2.94 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
232.2 IP, 239 K, 54 BB
10.4 R/9
9.2 K/9
31 starts, 22 QS (.667)
2 CG, 0 ShO
22/47
Like Arrieta and Greinke, Price will have a tough time being named the best pitcher on his team given Allentown's rotation depth. He was third on his team in ERA and second in innings pitched. He was still one of three pitchers to win 20 games and put up big strikeout totals. It's uncanny how similar some categories are to Adam Warren (R/9, CG, QS, WHIP).
17-8, (.680)
3.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
219.3 IP, 150 K, 29 BB
8.4 R/9
6.2 K/9
32 starts, 23 QS (.719)
2 CG, 0 ShO
28/47
Though he appears in the top 10 of 28 categories, including the top 3 in some key ones like WHIP. Tomlin probably gets a demerit though for the one category in which he was the outright leader: 45 home runs allowed. Voters who aren't afraid of control artists might have their candidate with a league-best 1.2 BB/9. He has the distinction of a no-hitter on his resume, though it came during his previous stint with the Floating Fish in 2012.
Adam Warren, San Francisco
20-6, (.769)
2.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
222.2 IP, 175 K, 70 BB
10.4 R/9
7.1 K/9
31 starts, 22 QS (.710)
2 CG, 1 ShO
22/47
Some kept waiting for Warren to falter but he just kept chugging along, becoming a 20-game winner and finishing second in ERA. He even went back to his roots (Warren was eligible as a RP the past two season) making 6 appearances out of the bullpen and earning a save. At times, he overshadowed teammate Chris Sale, which is tough to do considering he appeared in the top of 33 categories, including strikeouts, K/9 and K/BB.
Those are the leading contenders from one point of view. Here are a few more pitchers who warrant honorable mention or at least some hometown love on the ballot:
Jamie Garcia, Allentown
15-11 (.577)
2.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
209 IP, 143K, 63 BB
6.2 K/9
11.1 R/9
32 starts, 24 QS (.750)
0 CG, 0 ShO, 44 GDP
16/47
Gerrit Cole, Sardine City
15-8 (.652)
3.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
219.2 IP, 188K, 51 BB
7.7 K/9
10.6 R/9
33 starts, 21 QS (.636)
2 CG, 2 ShO
9/47
Chi Chi Gonzalez, Marietta
17-8, (.680)
3.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
220 IP, 88 K, 99 BB (!?!)
3.6 K/9
10.7 R/9
32 starts, 22 QS (.688)
2 CG, 0 ShO
24/41
John Lackey, Allentown
13-12, (.520)
3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
237 IP, 147K, 68 BB
5.6 K/9
11.5 R/9
32 starts, 19 QS (.594)
10 CG, 2 ShO
18/47
Jon Lester, Tucson
15-7, (.682)
2.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
207.1 IP, 209 K, 49 BB
9.1 K/9
10.3 R/9
32 starts, 23 QS (.719)
0 CG, 0 ShO
22/41
Chris Sale, San Francisco
14-11, (.560)
2.70 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
216.1 IP, 263 K, 51 BB
10.9 K/9
9.9 R/9
30 starts, 19 QS (.622)
5 CG, 2 ShO
33/41
Masahiro Tanaka, Blue Ridge
10-13, (.435)
3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
211 IP, 181 K, 44 BB
7.7 K/9
9.7 R/9
32 starts, 23 QS (.719)
1 CG
13/41
If relievers are your thing:
Mark Melancon, Hoboken
31/32 saves, .969
4-0, 56 G
1.27 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
6.6 K/9
.143 IRS (2/14)
Ken Giles, Tucson
28/36 saves, .778
6-3, 64 G
1.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
9.4 K/9
.400 IRS (10/25)
Andrew Miller, Vancouver
27/28 saves, .964
2-5, 68 G
2.08 ERA, 0.79 WHIP
14.9 K/9
.114 IRS% (4/35)
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