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Tuesday, January 30, 2018

2017 McDonald Award candidates

There was only one 20-game winner in the DMBL this season but wins aren't a measure of a pitcher like they once were, as SABRmetrics and other numbers have taken a more prominent place in evaluating a pitcher's season.

The race for the 2017 Ben McDonald Most Valuable Pitcher Award has a little of everything: what looks like a front-runner, a number of leading contenders who might challenge, even a couple of relievers who could warrant consideration.

Voting is the same as it is for the Kevin Mitchell Most Valuable Batter Award, with five candidates to a ballot, tabulated on a 10-7-5-3-1 points system (10 points for first place, 7 for second place, etc.). For a a look at the top three leaders in each of the pitching leaders for 2017 and the full top 10 here.

Here are a dozen candidates + some dark horses at the end, to consider for the 2017 Ben McDonald Most Valuable Pitcher Award (listed in alphabetical order, bold italics indicate league leader):

Jake Arrieta, Tucson
17-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
213.7 IP, 194 K
10.7 R/9, 8.2 K/9
21 QS-33 GS (.636)
3 CG, 1 ShO
Last year's McDonald Award winner had a solid year, going 10-3 in the second half, and found himself among the top 10 in batting average, slugging and tied for second in H/9, but also ranked 3rd in walks. He edged teammate Madison Bumgarner for the team lead in wins as the lefty went 16-9 (he also tied for the league lead with 6 complete games and ranked 5th in strikeouts with 222).

Johnny Cueto, Vancouver
22-5, 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
215.3 IP, 188 K
10.2 R/9, 7.9 K/9
2 CG, 2 ShO
22 QS-33 GS, (.667 QS)
Vancouver's ace might be the man to beat. It's hard to discount leading the league in wins and win percentage (22-5) in a year with no other 20-game winners. He powered the Iron Fist down the stretch with an 11-1, 2.55 ERA in the second half and also tied for 2nd in run support at 5.5 runs per game. He ranked 4th in the league in ERA.

Chris Devenski, Livingston
10-5, 2.33 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
19 Sv, 9 BSv, .655 Sv%
10.7 R/9, 9.1 K/9
166.3 IP, 168 K, 108 G
The rookie boasted the second-best ERA in the league (2.33), logging enough innings and appearances to even challenge for the ERA title. He also won 10 games out of the 'pen and saved 19 games while tossing 166+ innings in 108 appearances to anchor the Livingston relief corps.

Jose Fernandez, Poovey Farms
12-11, 3.32 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
200.3 IP, 284 K
10.3 R/9, 12.8 K/9
20 QS-31 GS, (.645)
1 CG, 1 ShO
Fernandez, who died in the offseason in a boating accident, led the league in K/9, which is his calling card, despite a modest 12-11 mark. He finished second in the league in strikeouts in what was his final DMBL season.

Rich Hill, Tucson
16-5, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
178.3 IP, 192 Ks
10.0 R/9, 9.7 K/9
19 QS-29 GS (.655 QS)
The third overall pick in the 2017 draft paid off for Tucson, leading the league in ERA (2.12) as he helped secure the 2nd seed as arguably the Kingsnakes' best starter. If voters have a knock on the 37-year-old lefty, it's that he didn't pitch deep into games and lacks any complete games or shutouts on his 2017 resume. But he did have a perfect 9-0 mark in the second half and 1.54 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw, Hoboken
12-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
181.3 IP, 196 K
9.2 R/9, 9.7 K/9
4 CG, 3 ShO
19 QS-28 GS (.679 QS)
The Hoboken ace not only led the league with 8.9 K/BB ratio not only led the league but it was historically good -- better than Pedro Martinez in 2001 (8.6) and Cliff Lee in 2011 (8.5). The knock on the big lefty could be his low win total although his 3.18 ERA still ranked in the top 10. A month on the DL could cost him too as he missed 4 starts and exited 2 others within the 1st inning due to injury.

Jake Odorizzi, Blue Ridge
14-6, 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
199.7 IP, 172 K
9.5 R/9, 7.8 K/9
24 QS-32 GS (.750 QS)
Odorizzi teamed up with Masahiro Tanaka for a formidable 1-2 punch and led the league in quality starts and quality start percentage in what was a breakout year for the one-time prospect. He also found himself among the top 10 league leaders in a variety of categories, ranking 3rd in ERA and R/9, and 2nd in batting average, on-base, H/9.

Seung Hwan Oh, Tucson
4-2, 1.71 ERA 1.05 WHIP
32 Sv, 1 BSv, .970 Sv%
9.5 R/9, 10.0 K/9
If you're looking for a reliever for your ballot, the 35-year-old Japanese import didn't set any records but he finished second in saves, trailing Blue Ridge's Alex Colome by just one. He blew just one save (compared to Colome's 5 and Devenski's 9) to finish with a league-best save percentage. Technically, as a first-year player, he could garner Listach Award consideration as well.

Rick Porcello, Hoboken
19-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
245.3 IP, 204 K
10.7 R/9, 7.5 K/9
6 CG, 4 ShO
20 QS-33 GS (.606 QS%)
Porcello finished second in wins and was a workhorse for the Cutters, leading the league in innings, complete games and shutouts, despite a 4.00 ERA. Whether it's a good thing or not, he faced a league-high 1,017 batters on the season.

Chris Sale, San Francisco
18-10, 3.02 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
241 IP, 262 Ks
9.4 R/9, 9.8 K/9
4 CG, 2 Sho
23 QS-33 GS, (.697 QS%)
Probably the favorite among SABRmetricians, the lefty was 3rd in the league in strikeouts and ranked second in most other categories, including R/9, innings, quality starts, and quality start percentage. He had a league-high 179 Ks against right-handed batters, finishing the year with three more than Jose Fernandez and Philly's Drew Pomeranz.

Max Scherzer, Hoboken
18-10, 4.01 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
229 IP, 288 K
10.0 R/9, 11.3 K/9
3 CG, 1 ShO
21 QS-32 GS, (.656 QS)
Scherzer had a Jekyll-Hyde season, starting the all-star game thanks to an 11-3 mark but a second half that saw a 7-7 record with a 4.51 ERA. Only two pitchers had more wins, a result of his league-best support of 5.6 runs per game, overcoming his high ERA. He ranked all over the top 10 in major categories, including 3rd in K/9 and 5th in innings, but also 3rd in home runs allowed. And for voters who like power, no one had more strikeouts.

Masahiro Tanaka, Blue Ridge
17-8, 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
229.7 IP, 180 K
10.4 R/9, 7.1 K/9
22 QS-33 GS (.667 QS)
5 CG, 2 ShO
Tanaka anchored a rotation that helped the Bombers to 93 wins and their first playoff appearance. The native of Japan finished in the top 5 in complete games and quality starts and ranked 4th in innings pitched.

And here are 5 honorable mention and dark-horse candidates worth noting:

Tyler Anderson, San Francisco
16-8, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
10.8 R/9, 8.2 K/9
22 QS - 32 GS (.688 QS%)
5 CG, 1 ShO
222 IP, 203 K
Anderson was a horse for the Experience behind ace Chris Sale. He might garner more consideration as a serious candidate for the Listach Rookie of the Year Award, leading rookie starters in wins, quality starts, quality start percentage, complete games and strikeouts.

Kyle Hendricks, Hopatcong
14-8, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
209.7 IP, 169 K
11.2 R/9, 7.2 K/9
23 QS-33 GS (.697)
Hendricks boasted the 5th-best ERA but his calling card was quality starts and percentage, tied with Chris Sale for 2nd best.

Carlos Martinez, Hillsborough
15-12, 3.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
229 IP, 165 K
11.9 R/9, 6.5 K/9
21 QS-33 GS (.636)
5 CG, 4 ShO
Although he ranked 2nd in the league in walks, Martinez did that while logging a league-high 119 innings in the second half and anchored a Hillsborough squad that went 73-89 overall. He had by far the most ground ball double plays of any pitcher, with 42; Marietta's Adam Wainright and Livingston's Tanner Roark tied for second with 31.

Joe Ross, Sardine City
16-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
187 IP, 156 K
12.4 R/9, 7.5 K/9
18 QS-32 GS (.563)
Ross was the team leader in wins for a squad that won the division and eventually made a deep run into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.

Justin Verlander, Livingston
15-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
226 IP, 254 K
10.8 R/9, 10.1 K/9
20 QS-32 GS, (.625)
4 CG, 3 ShO
Mr. Kate Upton finished in the top 3 in the league in several categories, including 3rd in innings.Only Porcello faced more batters in the season. He also had the most strikeouts against left-handed batters (163), far ahead of Scherzer (123).

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