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Monday, August 26, 2013

Blue Ridge keeps heat on Arkansas

The final 10 games (give or take) of the 2013 season are upon us and still the playoff race has yet to be resolved. Four teams are within four games of each other for the sixth and final playoff spot. Meanwhile, a battle is still on for the number-one seed as Philly has opened a 2 1/2-game lead on Las Vegas for home-field throughout the playoffs.

There's at least been some continuity as Arkansas has held on to the sixth spot for the past week but the view from behind has shifted as Blue Ridge continues to pile up the W's, passing Rowdy and Sardine City to pull within 1 1/2 games of the Golden Falcons. A week ago, the Bombers were 3 1/2 back of the Wild Card but have continued one of the great runs this season.

Whoever grabs the sixth seed likely will face No. 3 Vancouver in the first round of postseason while the others go into the draft lottery, a.k.a., the Yasiel Puig/Jose Fernandez sweepstakes. Two of the teams still in the hunt are assured of finishing below. 500, having suffered their 82nd loss.

Let's take a look at where they stand and what's on the horizon in the season's final 10 games:

Arkansas, 74-78, ----
Remaining schedule: .519 win percentage
v. Sardine City
2 @ Boston
2 v. Las Vegas
2 @ Philly
3 @ Sardine City
Arkansas just sort of treaded water last week, going 3-4, which was good enough, for now. The good news is that the Golden Falcons get Matt Harvey back from injury and should be able to squeeze two more starts out of him, including a likely start against Las Vegas while also avoiding Kris Medlen, who could return from the DL after their series. The bad news is their opponents' winning percentage is .521 thanks to a gauntlet of two-game sets against Vegas and Philly before their three-game season finale with Sardine City. Arkansas could bury the Straphangers with a win tonight (A.J. Griffin v. Brandon McCarthy) but they may have to start worrying about other teams at this point. The Golden Falcons have little room for error if they want to finish better than .500; they'll need a run of no worse than 8-2; no worse  than 7-3 to finish an even .500.

Blue Ridge, 72-79, 1 1/2 GB
Remaining schedule: .463 win percentage
@ Hillsborough
2 v. Philly
3 v. Livingston
2 @ Boston
3 v. Hillsborough
Blue Ridge has put together one of the great runs of the 2013 season, and quite possibly one of the best ever, at least to finish a season. Their only loss in the past 2+ weeks was a 2-1 setback against Brick City, otherwise we're talking about a 21-game win streak. Still, they've won 20 of their last 21 games, which came after a three-game skid, including a new 5-game win streak after their 15-win streak ended. All this after selling at the trade deadline (dealing Gio Gonzalez and David Hernandez). Their toughest opponent will be Philly but it's only two games this week. While Arkansas is dealing with powerhouses Las Vegas and Philly later this week, the Bombers get to face off against Livingston and Boston. Of the remaining teams, only Arkansas and Blue Ridge have any shot (albeit long) of finishing better than .500; the Bombers can only loss two more if they have any hope of avoiding a losing record.

Rowdy, 72-81, 3 GB
Remaining schedule: .595 win percentage
@ Philly
2 v. Amityville
3 @ Hoboken
2 v. Sardine City
2 v. Philly
The Roddy Pipers are still hanging around after an up-and-down stretch, going 3-4 to gain no ground on Arkansas. They face the toughest schedule over the final 10 games, including six games against playoff-bound Hoboken and Philly, two more against possibly a third playoff team in Sardine City, as well as two versus Amityville, who's just barely hanging on to a flicker of hope.

Sardine City, 70-82, 4 GB
Remaining schedule: .497 win percentage
@ Arkansas
2 v. Brick City
2 @ Vancouver
2 @ Rowdy
3 v. Arkansas
As long as Sardine City can remain within 3 games or less of Arkansas, they'll be within striking distance, with that three-game season finale in their back pocket. But that's the problem, at present they stand 4 games back as they enter Monday night's critical matchup at Arkansas. The Straphangers have stumbled badly of late, with just one win sandwiched around three losses last week to go 1-6, on top of a six-game skid two weeks ago, making them just 3-12 over their last 15 games. They had won 8 of 9 before that ugly stretch.

Amityville, 69-82, 4 1/2 GB
Remaining schedule: .439 win percentage
v. Livingston
2 @ Rowdy
3 v. Hillsborough
2 @ Brick City
3 @ Livingston
Amityville continues to face the weakest competition, at least according to opponents' win percentage, but it hasn't helped. The Ant Slayers are running out of time but they do have an extra game to play and have won three straight after losing three in a row last week. Either way, they probably will need quite a bit of help from others to make a run of destiny.

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