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Sunday, June 18, 2023

ASG Candidates: Starting pitchers

We've hit the All-Star Break of the 2023 season, so here's a look at potential candidates to fill out your ballots.

There's only room for five starting pitchers on your All-Star Game ballot so here are a few options in each conference that voters might consider. There could be others, of course, but these hurlers stand out and I didn't want to spend all week writing this.

The Diamond Conference includes Tucson, Sardine City, Hoboken, Vancouver, Hopatcong, Empire City, Arkansas, San Francisco, Green Lake, and Newark.

Diamond Starters

Heading into the break, the Diamond Conference has two pitchers on pace to win 20 games. Tucson's Max Scherzer (10-1) and the undefeated Miles Mikolas (10-0) of Hopatcong. You can discount wins by a starting pitcher all you want, but a win's a win. Mikolas enjoys the strongest run support in the league (5.8 per game) but he's not just some lucky stiff. He's among only 15 pitchers in the league with a HIP of 1.00 (or better) to go with a 2.70 ERA and his 11 quality starts and .688 QS% ranks with the best of them too.

Tucson has dominated a weak Aaron Division this year (19-1) but Scherzer has actually played a very small part in that, with only 5 of his 16 starts against division opponents. Yet he could start his second straight ASG thanks to a conference-leading 13 quality starts plus 2 shutouts. Scherzer also ranks among the top 10 in ERA (2.54), strikeouts (124), on-base (.253), K/BB (7.3), WHIP (0.97), and strike percentage (.684).

The league-leading King Snakes (57-24) can boast of several pitching candidates. Kevin Gausman heads into the break as the league leader in ERA (1.47) while Brandon Woodruff is tied for the conference lead in WHIP (0.94) along with Vancouver's Aaron Nola, and ranks 3rd in ERA (2.08). Gausman has other credentials too, ranking 2nd among Diamond starters in WHIP (0.95), quality starts (12) and QS percentage (.800).

Nola, meanwhile, leads all pitchers with 117 2/3 innings and has the top strike percentage among Diamond Conference starters (.691). Teammate Luis Castillo can make a case too, ranking 9th in ERA (2.53), 5th in QS% (.769) and among the top 10 in slugging and OPS.

Hoboken's Clayton Kershaw has found himself among the league leaders every year and this season is no different. He's compiled an 8-5 mark and ranks 7th in ERA (2.48) across 112 1/3 innings, good for 5th most in the league to go with a solid 1.06 WHIP. Kershaw recently passed Tom Glavine for most career starts by a left-hander (455) in DMBL, ranks 2nd all-time in strikeouts (3,102), and is approaching 3,000 innings.

Two other left-handers could get consideration. Carlos Rodon of Hopatcong leads the Diamond Conference in K/9 (13.2) and is right behind Kershaw in ERA (2.52). One questionable stat line is his 1.17 WHIP, which is perfectly solid but not quite elite. Nestor Cortes of Allentown might be overlooked because he's missed some time with injuries, just 71 1/3 innings over 12 starts. Yet his 8-2 mark is among the best in the league and so are his 2.27 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Arkansas workhorse Sandy Alcantara (6-3) has logged 111 1/3 innings while compiling a 2.91 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 quality starts (.750). Another Golden Falcon who could see support is Zac Gallen (9-5), with a 3.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP plus 107 Ks over 98 1/2 innings. Teammate Tony Gonsolin (7-2) may not have the power numbers but his 0.97 WHIP puts him in elite company and his 3.10 ERA ain't bad. Both have made 10 quality starts.

Empire City has two solid contenders in Jose Urquidy (8-4) and Alex Cobb (5-4) who have identical numbers in some categories. Both sport a 1.03 WHIP over 13 starts, 11 of which were quality for a .769 QS%. Urquidy has the edge in innings (89 2/3 versus 77).

Sardine City hits the break on pace for 100 wins (49-30) and sitting at No. 2, largely on the strength of their bullpen and the best batter in the league. If you're looking for a standout starter, it could be Bailey Ober (5-3), who offers a respectable 3.30 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but only 76 1/3 innings across 12 starts.. His .685 strike percentage ranks 4th in the league, just ahead of Scherzer and deGrom, even though his K/9 (7.4) don't quite match up with them.

Micro Starters

The Micro Conference is comprised of Livingston, Erie, Allentown, El Paso, Blue Ridge, Hillsborough, Marietta, Poovey Farms, Rockland, and Philadelphia.

Reigning McDonald Award winner Jacob deGrom of Livingston leads the league in strikeouts (162), K/9 (13.9) and K/BB (10.8) and is 2nd in WHIP (0.87) only to teammate Ross Stripling (0.84), who is ranks behind only deGrom in K/BB (10.1). Stripling also boasts the league's highest strike percentage (.694) while deGrom ranks 6th (.683).

Another Livingston teammate, Gerrit Cole, is the only pitcher in the Diamond Conference on pace for 20 wins (10-2). He also Ks batters at an 11.1 per 9 innings clip and ranks 11th overall with 120 Ks. One demerit to his candidacy might be his below-average WHIP (1.21).

Veteran Justin Verlander (8-2) of Marietta has made himself a McDonald Award candidate again, leading Diamond pitchers in ERA (1.83) and is 1st in the league in slugging (.273) and tied with 3 others with 13 quality starts, to go with a .765 QS percentage.

Poovey Farms' Shohei Ohtani might have a better shot making it as a pitcher than a batter. He's recorded a 1.07 WHIP and 2.29 ERA (5th) over 106 1/3 innings to go 7-4. His 147 strikeouts are second only to deGrom - though he can be wild: his 36 walks rank 9th in DMBL - and his 13 quality starts (.765) tie him for the league lead.

If there's an under-the-radar candidacy it might be that of Erie rookie Edwin Cabrera. While he's among the league leaders in walks (40), he's also sports a league-best batting against (.137) and H/9 (4.2), and among the top 5 in WHIP (0.88), slugging (.287) and OPS (.544). Cabrera is just outside the top 10 in ERA (2.74) and fashioned a 7-4 record.

For those who disregard wins, former No. 1 overall pick Alek Manoah of Rockland might be your candidate. The big right-hander leads the league in QS percentage (.867) and is tied with three others for tops with 13 quality starts, ranks 4th in ERA (2.18), and is among the top 10 in on-base and slugging and other categories. Yet he's only 3-4. Despite their 50-loss first half, the Racers have arms. Rookie Kyle Wright (6-4) and Brady Singer (6-5) may sport ERAs above 3.00 but both also have WHIPs closer to 1.00, and in double digits in quality starts, logging quality starts in at least two-thirds of their outings - among the top 10 in the Micro.  

Another candidate who might be overlooked is Hillsborough's Julio Urias. His 4-9 mark is forgettable yet his 0.99 WHIP ranks 10th in DMBL. He's also tossed 109 2/3 innings and while his 3.53 ERA is a touch high, he's tossed 1 shutout across 17 starts.

The Diamond conference boasts the past two No. 1 overall picks. Rookie Spencer Strider (8-3) of Hillsborough is putting together a Listach-like campaign. He's been among the leaders in strikeouts all year, with 141 at the break good for 3rd in DMBL. His 0.95 WHIP, 2.55 ERA and 12.9 K/9 also put him in elite company. One blemish could be his paltry .500 quality start percentage (8/16), an aberration among ASG candidates.

Erie left-hander Jose Quintana can call himself one of only two undefeated starters. His 8-0 mark will get attention and his ERA (3.00) is respectable but his WHIP (1.20) might not be ASG worthy.

El Paso's Chris Bassitt has been jockeying for the lead in innings pitched, finished the 1st half with 114 1/2, one out behind Philly's Zack Wheeler and Nola. He's also compiled a 2.83 ERA - not in the top 10 but close. His 1.23 WHIP, however, could make voters think twice. 

If you're looking to cast a ballot for the league's worst team, Philly (25-58) has workhorses throughout its rotation. Former McDonald Award contender Zack Wheeler (5-7), who continues to be among the most consistent starters in the DMBL, and left-hander Logan Webb (5-8) have logged 114 2/3 and 113 innings, respectively. Both have made 10 of 17 quality starts (.588) but Webb's ERA and WHIP (3.98 and 1.28) might be issues for voters. Wheeler sports a respectable 3.69 ERA and better 1.13 WHIP, to go with 3 complete games, tied with deGrom for most in the league.

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