Strasburg approaches win percentage mark

At one point this season, Stephen Strasburg was 2-0 and fell to 2-1 after his fifth start, when he was ripped for 7 runs in 6+ innings by El Paso way back in April. He's now 18-1.

Strasburg threw his first complete of the season on Monday night, a 4-hit shut out of Arkansas, for his fourth victory in as many starts and a win in his 16th straight decision. The 30-year-old San Diego native is having a career year and currently is the leading candidate for the McDonald Award, according to the McDonald Predictor, which is based on a Rob Neyer/Bill James formula.

Not only does Hopatcong's ace have the best chance of any pitcher to reach 20 wins, he has a shot at breaking the league record for win percentage in a season, currently leading the league (.947). Pedro Martinez holds the win percentage record (.913), set in 2002 when he went 21-2 for Arkansas. (There are a couple of other league records likely to fall in the coming days, which we'll have a look at in an upcoming post.)

Strasburg might have as many as four starts remaining within the team's final 20 games. He has logged 29 starts so far and the Floating Fish are closing in on the No. 2 overall seed but could still catch Sardine City for the No. 1 seed and homefield throughout the postseason.

Assuming four more starts for Strasburg, 5 scenarios out of a possible 15 would give him the win percentage record; in one, he would tie the mark. Almost all 5 record scenarios involve either winning or getting a no decision. If he wants the record all to himself, Strasburg has to win out; he can afford one loss to match Martinez but he still would have to win all three of his remaining starts; no no-decisions! He lines up to start against San Fransisco on Saturday, El Paso on Wednesday, Blue Ridge next Sunday, and Tucson - the only one of the four currently above .500 - two weeks from Friday.

Here's a look at what Strasburg's final record and win percentage would look like based on wins, losses or no-decisions in his final four starts:

W-L, Win %, remaining W-L
22-1 (.957) (4-0)
21-1 (.955) (3-0)
20-1 (.952) (2-0)
19-1 (.950) (1-0)
18-1 (.947) (0-0)
21-2 (.913) (3-1)
20-2 (.909) (2-1)
19-2 (.905) (1-1)
18-2 (.900) (0-1)
20-3 (.870) (2-2)
19-3 (.864) (1-2)
18-3 (.857) (0-2)
18-4 (.818) (0-3)
18-5 (.783) (0-4)
19-4 (.760) (1-3)

Strasburg has 10 no-decisions in 29 starts and leads the league in quality starts (22) and quality start percentage (.759).

Max Scherzer of Tucson probably has the next-best shot to win 20 games. He won his 17th on Tuesday night, good for second in the league, and likely has four more starts within Tucson's remaining 22 games; one could be a breather (Hoboken) while three others are likely against playoff contenders (Arkansas, Sardine City and Hopatcong) but he has some margin for error to get to 20. His next win will match a career-high 18 for Scherzer, which he did last year in Hoboken after campaigns of 14-18 and 11-17 for the Cutters.

Marietta's Luis Severino won his 16th game on Monday night and could have four remaining starts within the Mighty Men's 21 remaining games, leaving no room for error to reach 20 victories. The 24-year-old Dominican, who finished 5th in the Listach Award voting two years ago when he was with Hopatcong, only faces one playoff contender (Vancouver in his final start) while the rest of his potential schedule is more lenient, facing Livingston, Blue Ridge and El Paso, all of whom are under .500.

Sardine City has two 15-game winners in Corey Kluber (15-7) and Sonny Gray (15-8) but both have likely run out of time to reach 20 wins. Gray won his 15th on Monday night but likely only has four starts remaining; he lines up to start the series finale at Livingston before a three-game season finale versus Allentown. Gray went 23-6 in 2013 during a sterling rookie campaign with Durham (now Tucson) in 2013.

Kluber struck out 12 in 8 innings Wednesday night but got a no-decision. He sets up to make the start in that Allentown series in the season's penultimate game, which meant he had five remaining starts heading into his last game at El Paso -- but he needed to win all five.

That leaves but three pitchers still vying for 20 wins: Strasburg, Scherzer and Severino.