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Sunday, March 11, 2018

How did last year's 1st rounders fare?

The buzz of draft day has barely worn off yet, with the excitement and budding hope keeping owners up through the night mixing and matching their potential new lineups and rotations.

Three ineligible prospects were selected within the first seven picks this year, including No. 1 overall, amid a crop of young starting pitchers, possible one-year wonders. Will they stick? Will one of them turn out to be the next Kris Medlen (2013) or Daniel Hudson (2011)? Or did some team land the next Dustin Pedroia (2008) or David Wright (2005)?

If last year was any indication, the three ineligible prospects drafted in Saturday's 1st round (3B Rafael Devers, No. 1 to Arkansas; OF Ron Acuna, No. 4 to El Paso, and 2B Ozzie Albies, No. 7 to Allentown) could very well be contributors to their squads in the 2019 DMBL season, or at least make the cut in January to remain on their rosters. Others may just flame out after a big 2018 campaign. Barely a third of last year's first-rounders (6) found themselves on 2018 protected lists -- and a pair of them will make their rookie debuts this season after being drafted as prospects -- but that doesn't mean some did not have successful 2017 campaigns.

Here's a look at how first-round selections of the 2017 draft fared:

1. Aledyms Diaz, ss, Philly
.285/.345/.468->.813
26 HR, 81 RBI, 101 runs
173 hits, 31 doubles
284 total bases
99.3 RC, 6.0 RC/27
It remains to be seen whether Diaz will go down in the annals of DMBL alongside former1st rounders Junior Spivey and Angel Berroa or closer to the likes of Pedroia and Starlin Castro. Diaz didn't disappoint despite the pressures of being the top overall pick. He was voted the starter for the Diamond Conference All-Stars. At 27, he may still rebound for productive years in the DMBL. Philly left him unprotected but went and got him back in the 2nd round of this year's supplemental draft.

2. Yasmany Tomas, 3b/OF, Poovey Farms
.263/.285/.466-.751
22 HR, 68 RBI, 50 runs
109 hits, 18 doubles
193 total bases
44.3 RC, 4.6 RC/27
It may have been the first time that the draft started with two Cuban players being selected. Tomas was the Dairy Cows' primary left fielder, making 121 starts plus 1 at DH. He compiled solid overall numbers, clobbering lefties in particular (.352/.386/.639-->1.025). He struck out 117 times but walked just 12 times in 428 PAs, coincidentally 6 times against both lefties and righties. His 24 GDPs were tied for 6th in the league.

3. Rich Hill, SP, Tucson
16-5, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
178.3 IP, 192 Ks
10.0 R/9, 9.7 K/9
19 QS-29 GS (.655 QS)
It's not often a 36-year-old warrants such a high pick, but Hill paid off for Tucson. He won the ERA title (2.12) while going 16-5 with a 1.03 WHIP and made the All-Star team. He began the season as the Kingsnakes' No. 2 SP and ascended to the top spot after the break, where he went 9-0 with a 1.54 ERA in the second half. Heading into the draft, he slots in as potential No. 2 SP after an offseason deal with Hoboken brought Max Scherzer to Tucson.

4. Alex Bregman, 3B, El Paso
The first ineligible prospect off the board, Bregman probably will start as a rookie this season. The 23-year-old was drafted as a 3B but also has eligibility at SS this season (where the Chihuahuas also have a youngster in Orlando Arcia).

There's little doubt that Bregman will at the very least see playing time against left-handers (.331/.404/.570->.974) if not garner a full-time role in 2018.

5. Jonathan Villar, SS/2B/3B, Hillsborough
.189/.262/.270->.532
9 HR, 38 RBI, 74 runs
127 hits, 27 doubles
181 total bases
49.8 RC, 2.3 RC/27
A 25-year-old speedy switch-hitter with pop and eligibility at three infield positions. What's not to like? Villar was an enigma in Hillsborough. He was an iron man, starting all 162 games at shortstop and batting leadoff, ahead of guys like George Springer, Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant, making it an even bigger wonder why he slashed just .189/.262/.270 on the year. He had little success against either lefties (.193) or righties (.188). His few highlights on the season were 30 stolen bases (4th in the league) but he also struck out 228 times, second in all of the DMBL. His 24 errors also ranked second to Hopatcong's Tim Anderson (31). Tucson took a flyer on him in the 5th round of this year's supplemental draft.

6. Tyler Naquin, CF, Blue Ridge
.254-.315-.444->.759
24 HR, 63 RBI, 90 runs
151 hits, 25 doubles, 8 triples
264 total bases
83.1 RC, 4.9 RC/27
48 BB, 230K
Naquin led the league in strikeouts (230) as a rookie and made the All-Star team. He was productive, with some pop and scoring runs, usually batting out of the 2-hole against right-handers. His eight triples tied for 5th in the DMBL. He managed 101 ABs versus lefties but didn't find much success, instead ripping righties (.267/.318/.482->.799). He made 147 starts in right field and one in center.

7. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Livingston
The only ineligible prospects drafted in the first round are now teammates. Not long after the 2017 draft, Livingston dealt the lefty-swinging OF to El Paso in a bit of a blockbuster, packaging him with SS Asdrubel Cabrera along 1st and 2nd rounders in 2018 in exchange for SS Carlos Correa.

Benintendi is expected to see playing time among any of the outfield positions, where the Chihuhuas also protected Corey Dickerson and Nomar Mazara. El Paso strengthened its rotation with the picks they got from Livingston, selecting Luis Castillo in the 1st round (10th overall, the 3rd SP taken) and Dileson Lamet in the 2nd (26th overall).

8. Jameson Taillon, SP, Hoboken
11-13, 5.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
197.7 IP, 161 Ks
12.7 R/9, 7.3 K/9
14 QS-32 GS (.438)
The first rookie pitcher selected, Taillon logged 32 starts but didn't go deep very often, not even cracking 200 innings and only 14 quality starts. He led the league in doubles allowed (64), hits versus left-handed batters (125), and ranked 2nd in balks (9). The 26-year-old overcame testicular cancer during the 2017 MLB season and is expected to make a comeback with the Cutters this season.

9.  Ryon Healy, 3B, Marietta
.257/.294/.486->.780
9 HR, 23 RBI, 24 runs
38 hits, 7 doubles
72 total bases
20.6 RC, 4.8 RC/27
8 BB, 36 Ks
The 25-year-old logged the least playing time of any other first-rounder. He made 16 starts at 3B (filling in when Justin Turner was injured) and played in 104 games but was primarily the first option to pinch-hit for Marietta, getting just 148 at-bats. Left unprotected, Healy was drafted in the 9th round on Saturday by El Paso.

10. Michael Fulmer, SP, El Paso
10-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
175.3 IP, 140K
11.5 R/9, 7.2 K/9
15 QS-29 GS (.517 QS%)
The second rookie pitcher selected, the 24-year-old had a more successful individual season than Taillon, second only to Vancouver's Johnny Cueto in All-Star voting. It'll be interesting to see which one of the young hurlers has the better DMBL career. Fulmer is El Paso's best starter heading into the draft. Thanks to the Benintendi deal, the Chihuhuas accounted for half of the six first-rounders who were protected for the 2018 season and also added another 2017 former 1st rounder by picking Healy in this year's draft.

11. Steven Wright, SP, Philly
7-11, 4.18 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
174.7 IP, 144 K, 1 CG
12.7 R/9, 7.4 K/9
15 QS - 25 GS (.600 QS%)
It wasn't as lost a season as it was for Villar or Healy but the 33-year-old was the first top pick released, getting the axe in mid-August. In 22 starts with Philly -- first as the No. 3 SP and then No. 2 after the break -- Wright went 6-9 with a 4.00 ERA over 157.3 innings and 1.37 WHIP. Tucson picked him up late in the year to fill-in for an injured Hill where he went 1-2 in 3 starts with a 5.71 ERA.

12. Eduardo Nunez, 3B/SS, Allentown
.257/.302/.426->.728
144 hits, 22 doubles, 2 triples
23 HR, 84 RBI, 78 runs
239 total bases
72.0 RC, RC/27
15 SB, 6 CS
32 BB, 78 K
One of seven Mules to make 162 starts and smack at least 20 homers, Nunez was the everyday shortstop though he also had eligibility at 3B where Manny Machado already was ensconced. He put up nice numbers out of the 9-spot thanks to a lineup that included Machado, Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton. The 29-year-old made 18 errors, 5th in the DMBL last season. His versatility probably played into Allentown protecting the utility man, having eligibility at 2B, 3B, SS and OF with solid pop versus lefties.

13. Marco Estrada, SP, Sardine City
7-13, 5.49 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
154 IP, 133 K
12.6 R/9, 7.8 K/9
14 QS - 28 GS (.500 QS%)
Three days after Wright was released, Estrada, 33, joined him in the free agent pool as the Straphangers went in a different direction down the stretch, signing Bartolo Colon, who had been cut weeks earlier by Blue Ridge.

14. Junior Guerra, SP, San Francisco
16-11, 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
200 IP, 167 K
10.8 R/9, 7.5 K/9
21 QS - 31 GS (.645 QS%)
The 32-year-old was solid, compiling a productive rookie campaign in a rotation that included fellow rookie Tyler Anderson and ace Chris Sale.

15. Brandon Drury, 3B, Arkansas
.290/.320/.447-->.767
15 HR, 57 RBI, 62 runs
150 hits, 43 doubles
250 total bases
72.6 RC, 4.7 RC/27
23 BB, 133 K
Drury led all rookies with 43 doubles, 6th-most in the league. The 25-year-old was considerably better against right-handers (.299/.331/.474->.805), who he usually faced while batting 5th for the Golden Falcons. He made 141 starts at each position where he was eligible: 26 at second base, 29 in left field and 84 in right, along with one game at third base. Drury will compete for the 2B job in Empire City, who this year picked him in the 11th round (166th overall).

16. Seung Hwan Oh, RP, Tucson
4-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
32 Sv, 1 BSv, .970 Sv%
9.5 R/9, 10.0 K/9
Tucson was all-in for a run to repeat in 2017, with both of its top selections being older players. Like Hill, Hwan Oh delivered for the Kingsnakes, making the All-Star team. He compiled 32 saves, blowing just one (for a league-leading .970%) to win The Eck Award and also garnered a vote for the McDonald Award. Technically a rookie, he allowed just 4 of 24 inherited runners to score all year (.167%). Unlike Hill though, Oh is now a free agent.

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