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Thursday, August 30, 2012

Showdown for the Kruk Division

Don't look now but there's another race to watch in the remaining days of the 2012 season.

After four straight wins -- including Tuesday night's no-hitter -- Hopatcong has tied Amityville for the third playoff seed. The Ant Slayers clinched the Drabek Division the other night. Coupled with Newark's loss on Wednesday, the Floating Fish go into tonight's season-ending series versus the Sugar Bears with a two-game lead in the Kruk Division.

After Wednesday's results, if the playoffs started today:
#1 Marietta*, 106-53
#2 Vancouver*, 92-68
#3 Amityville*, 88-71
#4 Hopatcong, 88-71
#5 Newark, 86-73
#6 Rowdy, 86-74
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Hoboken, 85-74 -- 1/2 game back of No. 6 seed
Bridgewater, 85-75 -- 1 1/2 back
Hillsborough, 83-76 -- 2 1/2 back

In an amazing coincidence, every team in the Kruk and Van Slyke divisions won Tuesday night as every team in the Drabek and Fisk divisions lost, leaving the playoff race essentially intact, other than the official elimination of Sardine City.

Should Hopatcong and Amityville remain tied for the No. 3 seed at the end of 162 games, the tiebreaker is head-to-heard record, which would go to -- no one! The two teams split 10 games this season! Both teams also are 21-18 within their respective divisions as they face off against division foes this weekend. If the tiebreaker gets that far, Hopatcong currently has a run differential of +114 while Amityville has a margin of +96.

Of course, those tiebreakers all get thrown out the window if Newark sneaks away with the Kruk Division, the only division still undecided. (FYI, Sugar Bears are 4-6 versus Amityville). With a two-game lead, Hopatcong needs just one win in their head-to-head matchup versus the Sugar Bears this weekend to clinch it. Head-to-head this season, Hopatcong holds a 7-4 advantage against Newark. Scheduled starters for both clubs look like this:
NWK @ HPG
Harrison (6-8, 3.91) v. Peavy (0-0, 0.00)
Baker (12-11, 3.47) v. Cain (13-8, 3.44)
Lohse (14-8, 3.37) v. Luebke (13-8, 3.70)
In a surprise move, Hopatcong opted to give Jake Peavy his first start of the season in Game No. 160 over Tim Stauffer, who's struggled much of the year, going 5-17 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Whether Newark wins the Kruk or not, the Sugar Bears still have work to do. They hold just a 1/2-game lead on Rowdy for the 5th seed and other squads are hot on their heels. The Roddy Pippers, who are off today, are just 1/2 game up on Hoboken and 1 game ahead of Bridgewater for that final playoff seed.

Rowdy will finish the season with two games at St. Louis and Bridgewater is also off today before a two-game set at Philly tomorrow. Starting tonight, Hoboken hosts three games against Marietta, which already has clinched the No. 1 seed.

Still hanging on to a sliver of hope is Hillsborough, which sent ace Justin Verlander to the mound yesterday for his final start of the season, and sits 2 1/2 games back of Rowdy for the final seed. The Hit Men will be rooting for Philly, Marietta, St. Louis and Hopatcong to win this weekend while they aim for a sweep in Amityville, who they're 7-4 against this season. The probable starter matchups:
HIL @ AMI
Hernandez (15-9, 3.81) v. Lester (16-6, 4.66)
Haren (12-9, 3.49) v. Weaver (14-11, 4.65)
Scherzer (6-16, 6.36) v. Hamels (14-10, 4.16)

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