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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Preview: Honolulu vs Newark

Yesterday we did a position by position comparison between Marietta and Philadelphia. Today we'll do the same with Honolulu and Newark.

Catcher: Brian McCann, Honolulu vs Gregg Zaun, Newark
Both of these guys are in a platoon - McCann with Kenji Johjima and Zaun with Michael Barrett - so we'll try to evaluate the entire platoon. McCann has had a breakout year for the Sharks in his first full year behind the plate. McCann's .572 slugging and .943 OPS were both second on the team. Zaun has had a great offensive season as well - .907 OPS and 92 RBIs. But since the Sugar Bears play in such an offense-friendly park, we have to scale down the numbers a bit. Advantage: Honolulu.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez, Honolulu vs Nick Johnson, Newark
Nick Johnson is the reigning Kevin Mitchell Award winner, so he has an edge before we even peer into the stats. Johnson has had another awesome season - .347 average, 1.053 OPS, 179 runs scored(!), 140 RBIs. Gonzalez has had a great breakout season for Honolulu - 27 homers, 107 RBIs, but he's just not in the same league as Johnson. Advantage: Newark.

Second Base: Ryan Freel vs Marlon Anderson
Where the heck did Anderson come from to post such ridiculous numbers? Anderson batted .360 with 117 RBIs and a 1.048 OPS - all career highs by far. In fact Anderson's "best" prior season featured a .592 OPS and 44 RBIs. Meanwhile Freel could be Marlon Anderson circa that "best" season with the poor numbers he's put up so far. Both players are platooned - Anderson with Mark DeRosa and Freel with Brian Roberts, but the platoons only strenghthen Newark's advantage here. Advantage: Newark.

Shortstop: Miguel Tejada vs Carlos Guillen
This one is a real battle. Guillen has put up crazy numbers for a second straight year - 1.056 OPS with 231 hits, 164 runs, and 139 RBIs. Tejada is one of the top hitters in Honolulu's lineup - .321 average, 99 RBIs, 102 runs. But even taking into account the teams' ballparks, Guillen has the advantage, but this one isn't as lopsided as some of the other comparisons. Advantage: Newark.

Third Base: Eric Chavez vs Mark Teahen
A few years ago, Chavez may have given Teahen some competition, but Chavez is not the player he used to be. Honolulu is platooning Chavez with Rich Aurilia and the platoon seems to be working out alright for the Sharks. Teahen has been a force for the Sugar Bears - 37 homers and 129 RBIs. Advantage: Newark.

Left Field: Frank Catalanotto vs Bobby Abreu
Little Cat shares left field duties with Torii Hunter and Cat has put up decent numbers. He leads the Sharks with a .323 average and has hit a respectable 31 doubles in 406 at bats. Abreu has had another quality season, .950 OPS, 160 runs, and a team high 28 stolen bases. Advantage: Newark.

Center Field: Johnny Damon vs Jim Edmonds
Damon is a solid if unspectacular player and probably doesn't deserve to be starting anymore in the DMBL. Edmonds has put up historic numbers - .390 average, 1.155 OPS, 123 runs, 144 RBIs. This isn't even a fair comparison. Advantage: Newark.

Right Field: Jermaine Dye vs Manny Ramirez
Manny was being Manny this year and put up his usual quality numbers - 41 homers, 139 RBIs, .933 OPS. Despite those numbers, and probably because of the ridiculous numbers put up by his teammates, Manny may be the "worst" hitter in the Sugar Bear lineup! Does Dye have a chance? Dye's had a great season, hitting 49 homers and driving in 129 runs, scoring 114 and compiling a .904 OPS. It's close enough on paper, independent of lineups or ballparks, but if you normalize the numbers, Dye gets the edge here. Advantage: Honolulu.

DH: Jason Giambi vs Chipper Jones
Giambi had a very good year for the Sharks, smacking 50 homers, 121 RBIs, and .996 OPS. Chipper was no slouch for the Sugar Bears either - 1.128 OPS, 44 homers, 140 RBIs. This is a very close call, but Chipper's higher batting average (more than .100 percentage poitns) gives him the nod. Advantage: Newark.

Bench: Both teams make extensive use of their benches in platoon roles, but Newark is an offensive machine. Both teams have good depth, but the Sugar Bears have better depth. Advantage: Newark.

Starting Pitching: Newark's pitching numbers look like a product of a great offense, but remember we have to be fair and normalize the pitching numbers too! John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, and Chien-Ming Wang are a formidable trio. The three combined for a 51-16 record and that's not even mentioning Javier Vazquez at 15-6, 4.38. Even fifth starter Joe Saunders was solid in his debut season. Honolulu's staff has decent depth as well. Lefty Jeff Francis dominated in his playoff debut and Jason Schmidt, Jered Weaver and Roy Oswalt are all quality arms. How they will do in the horror house that is the Cereal Bowl remains to be seen. Advantage: Newark.

Bullpen: This may be the second most lopsided battle here and may be the undoing of the Sharks in facing the Sugar Bears. The Sharks pen has been very unstable, starting with closer Tom Gordon, who has blown 11 saves, plus the game one chance against the Cutters. The rest of the pen is adequate, however, and can do the job if Gordon doesn't blow it for them. But the Sugar Bears' bullpen is one of the team's strengths. There is no set closer, but Cla Meredith has stood out with a 1.95 ERA and 19 saves. Advantage: Newark.

Overall, it doesn't look good for Honolulu and realistically, they will be lucky to win one game. But stranger things have happened. Look for Newark to return to the finals and try to win a record fourth straight World Series. Prediction: Newark in five.

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