The field of candidates for the Ben McDonald Award, which goes to the DMBL's best pitcher, might mark a shift in in 2024, away from power pitchers and innings eaters to a more SABRmetric model.
Strikeouts aren't quite at the level they were a few years ago. In fact, contenders for the McDonald are more often not the flamethrowers of yore. Sure, they rack up Ks though not at the absurd rate of just a few years ago.
If you value the traditional stats of wins, ERA and innings for an awards contender, then it's probably a two-horse race between Philly's Logan Webb and Cole Ragans of Poovey Farms. The Cy Young Predictor. has a razor thin margin between the two, who are far ahead of the rest of the pack.
Meanwhile, the hurlers who racked up the strikeouts still did so this year but their win totals and ancillary numbers were pretty mid.
For example, reigning Listach Award winner Spencer Strider of Hillsborough led the league with 308 Ks but otherwise had numbers unworthy of McDonald consideration: 10-14, 4.99 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. Newark's Freddy Peralta was 2nd with 279 Ks but finished just 10-8 with a 4.31 ERA. Rookie Kodai Senga of Allentown fanned 244 batters, ranking 10 in DMBL, but led the league in walks (106) while going 13-9 in just over 200 innings.
Then there's the Felix Hernandez/Corbin Burnes type candidacies whose win totals and innings were not much to write home about but their WHIP or categories/9 were among the league's leaders. Vancouver's Tarik Skubal went just 11-7 but led the DMBL in R/9 (8.8) and ERA (2.80) and teammate Cristopher Sanchez led the league in WHIP (0.94) while going just 10-6. Both had innings totals in the 170s.
The award recognizing the league's top pitcher is voted upon by the
DMBL's 20 owners. Each ballot has six players, with a point system of 10-7-5-3-2-1. Which 6 will make your ballot? Let's have a look at about 20 hurlers who have a chance. Call us old-fashioned but let's start with the pitchers who led the league in wins (19):
Cole Ragans, Poovey Farms
He finished right on the tail of ERA champion Tarik Skubal of Vancouver (2.80) with a 2.82 ERA and shared the league lead in wins (19) with Philly's Logan Webb. He also led all pitchers in quality starts (25) and QS% (.781)
Ragans ranked 7th overall in strikeouts (252), including 1st in strikeouts vRHB (192), and 7th in innings (213.7). The 19-7 mark was good for 3rd overall in win percentage (.831). Where he might fall short is WHIP, where his 1.18 was serviceable but not elite.
The Cy Young Predictor, which relies heavily on traditional stats of innings, wins, and strikeouts, likes the rookie (184.72) but just by a hair over Webb (182.14).
Logan Webb, Philly
For
those who like heat, Webb isn't your flamethrower, with 205 strikeouts
but his league-high 46 GDP helped him log all those innings efficiently,
as he faced the 3rd most batters in the league (6.2). His 5.7 K/BB ratio still ranked 5th overall and he was 2nd to Skuball in BB/9 (1.4).
Webb led the league in balls in park (674) and his 6.0 run support was 2nd highest in the league behind Tucson's Brandon Woodruff. The Cy Young Predictor has him 2nd by a whisker to Ragans, with the duo way ahead of the pack.
Tarik Skubal, Vancouver
For traditionalists, Skubal might be a little light on decisions (11-7) and his 173.3 IP wouldn't sniff the top 25 in the league. That shows up in the Cy Young Predictor, which places Skubal just 13th, ahead of Hoboken's Pablo Lopez and behind Hopatcong closer Jhoan Duran.
But the man was the ERA champ (2.80)! That's usually a good bet to get support for the McDonald. Skubal also led the league in several critical stats:
- R/9 (8.8)
- BB/9 (1.2)
- K/BB (8.0)
- HR/9 (0.4)
He also was 2nd only to Sanchez in WHIP (0.96) and surrendered a league-low 11 HR. His 185 Ks aren't as sexy as others but they got the job done considering the low innings total.
The 20 quality starts matched 3 other pitchers for 6th in DMBL and he 4th with .714 QS percentage.
Sonny Gray, Merrill Creek
Gray is might be under the radar because his team was just 69-93 but he checks a lot of boxes. He's got a solid 14-8 mark (tied with many others for 8th in victories) and eclipsed 200 Ks (207). His 212.7 IP ranked 8th in the league and he yielded just 15 HRs (0.6 HR/9, 2nd to Skubal).
The 19 quality starts and .576 QS% are solid though not quite top 10 in the league. The ERA (3.89) and WHIP (1.32) might be a detriment to his candidacy. The Cy Young Predictor puts him 11th, behind Senga.
Sandy Alcantara, Arkansas
The Golden Falcons leaned on Alcantara for 230.1 IP (2nd in DMBL). He also ranked 2nd in wins (18-8) and 7th in win percentage (.692). He was one of three pitchers with 2 shutouts and a league-high 5 complete games.
Alcantara makes a solid case, ranking 6th in WHIP (1.10) and tied for 3rd in quality starts (22) and 5th in QS % (.688), if that's your thing. The 188 strikeouts are a little light especially for that innings total if you want a lights out dude and his 3.44 ERA is solid if not spectacular. Despite that, The Cy Young Predictor places Alcantara 3rd overall, behind Ragans and Webb.
Corbin Burnes, Arkansas
A pitcher with an 11-13 record wouldn't normally warrant McDonald consideration but Corbin Burnes has some interesting side stats. He tied with Woodruff for 9th in innings (210.1) and with Hoboken's Pablo Lopez for 8th in strikeouts (247). Burnes also found himself in the DMBL top 10 for H/9 and batting average against, and tied for 3rd in quality starts (22) and 7th in QS percentage (.667).
With 13 losses though, it's no surprise that the Cy Young Predictor isn't a big fan, slotting Burnes at 16th, behind Sardine City's Matt Manning but ahead of Sanchez.
Miles Mikolas, Hopatcong
This might be a surprise but only if you didn't know Mikolas was 2nd in the league in wins (18-10). His 22 QS matched Alcantara and Burnes for 3rd in the league and he tied Alcantara for 5th in QS% (.688). Mikolas was formidable, tying for 9th overall in WHIP (1.14) with Philly's Sean Manea.
The Cy Young Predictor puts him a distant 7th, ahead of Livingston's Gerrit Cole and behind Erie rookie Gavin Williams.
Brandon Woodruff, Tucson
The perennial McDonald contender has a decent record (14-6, tied for 8th in DMBL with Williams and Hoboken's Julio Teheran) and a very tidy ERA of 3.00 (3rd in the league). He also boasts plenty of strikeouts (256, ranked 4th overall) in a lot of innings (210.3, tied for 9th in the league with Burnes). Woodruff also led the DMBL in H/9 (6.7), so there's good reason why the Cy Young Predictor would place him on the ballot at 5th.
As an added bonus, Woodruff's 3 CG tied with three others for 3rd in DMBL.
Gavin Williams, Erie
Maybe it's a surprise to see the rookie here but his win total (14-6) is right here with Woodruff and Teheran and his 174 K in 169 IP are formidable. Maybe that's why the Cy Young Predictor slots him 6th - which would place him on the last spot on the ballot.
Cristopher Sanchez, Vancouver
Like Ragans, Sanchez is a rookie left-hander taken in the 1st round. He led the entire league in WHIP (0.94) but Managed a record of just 10-6, which won't thrill voters looking for any 20-game winner types. It also doesn't impress the Cy Young Predictor, placing him 17th -- behind Burnes and ahead of Philly's Zack Wheeler.
Zack Wheeler, Philly
Speaking of Wheeler, he's been a stalwart in the Green Rage's rotation for years now, racking up the innings, and 2024 was just a continuation. He logged 227.7 IP, 3rd in the league behind Webb and Alcantara, and had a healthy 254 strikeouts, tied for 7th in DMBL with Tucson's Kevin Gausman. He also faced a league-high 987 batters in 2024. What hurts him in the Cy Young Predictor is the 14-13 record.
Gerrit Cole, Livingston
The 14-10 record is pedestrian but Cole ranked 8th in ERA (3.33), and tied with Framber Valdez for 4th in the league with 216 IP. The 1.00 WHIP was 3rd and he tied for 2nd in H/9 (6.9). He also racked up 3 CG and 1 shutout while recording 208 strikeouts.
The Cy Young Predictor probably isn't too keen on the double-digit losses, placing Cole 8th, just off the ballot, behind Hopatcong's Miles Mikolas and ahead of Hoboken rookie Emmet Sheehan.
Tyler Wells, Newark
The 11-10 record won't win over many voters. And frankly, neither will the 4.06 ERA. He had a respectable 205 K in 199.2 IP but where Wells really pins his hopes is the 1.01 WHIP that was good for 4th in the league. He also ranked within the 3 in things like batting, on-base, and R/9. The thing is when batters connected on Wells, they really connected: His 48 HR allowed were 2nd to only Double Dragons' Taj Bradley. (49).
Relievers
There were no outright historic seasons among relievers. Hopatcong's Jhoan Duran led the league with 31 saves (one more than Newark's Shelby Miller) and racked up 88 K's in just 69 IP across 59 games for an 11.5 K/9. His 3-5 mark isn't great but he sported a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Empire City's Josh Hader led the league in save percentage (.900), racking up 27 saves in 30 opportunities, leading to a 1-5 mark out of the pen. Where really shined as an incredible 127 Ks in 78.2 IP for an absurd 14.5 K/9. He allowed just 7 of 47 (.149) inherited runners to score.
The Cy Young Predictor also loves saves so Miller gets enough points to rank 4th -- ahead of Woodruff and behind Alcanatara. Duran finishes 12th in the Cy Young Predictor.
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