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Friday, August 31, 2012

A Duel For Batting Title Heading Into Final Weekend

It's been almost a foregone conclusion for some time that a Bridgewater Maller or a Rowdy Roddy Piper will go home with the 2012 batting title. For the last few weeks, the top three batters in the league hail from those two squads, as well as four of the top five and six of the top 10.

Bridgewater DH/catcher Victor Martinez holds the edge at the moment, batting .333 (160-480, .333333) followed by veteran Michael Young of Rowdy, hitting .331 (220-664, .331325). Each have two games to play after yesterday's off day. Martinez has started 49 games at catcher and 67 at DH while Young has started 159 (of Rowdy's 160 games) at third base.

Assuming Young gets 8 at-bats in the final two games versus St. Louis, 4 hits would push him into an even tie with Martinez at .333333 -- if Martinez were to not get any at-bats, that is. A sizzling 5 hits over two games (assuming the 8 ABs) would mean a .334821 batting average for Young and time for Martinez to start looking over his shoulder. Anything less than three hits in 8 ABs (which would lift his average to .331845) and Young will have to hope for Martinez to swing and miss regularly.

Martinez tends to sit against lefties, though he's hit them well in only 78 at-bats (.372/.424/.500). Tonight's scheduled starter for Philly is Travis Wood, potentially leaving just one start for Martinez, or 4 at-bats out of the cleanup spot. Should he go hitless, he would finish at .331 (.330578), a 1-for-4 night would leave him at .333 (.332644), while 3-for-4 would essentially put the crown out of reach for Young at .336776. Of course, if V-Mart comes off the bench, there's always the pinch-hit opportunity, which would mean an additional at-bat, maybe two.

It's Young who's likely to finish as the league leader in overall hits, now sitting on 220, leading Bridgewater's Jose Reyes and Robinson Cano of Hopatcong, both at 206.

Young broke in with Vancouver in 2003 as a part-time player, secured a full-time gig in 2005 and went on to play three consecutive 162-game seasons. He hit a career-high .331 with 237 hits in 2006. Though he's never hit above .300 or gotten 200 hits otherwise (198 in '05), Young has been a model of consistency, entering this season with a career .286 average. He joined Carolina (now Rowdy) last year where he started 162 games. He's started no fewer than 140 (2010 with Hoboken) since those early days in Vancouver.

Another longtime Iron Fister, Martinez spent his first five seasons in Vancouver (2005-2009). He hit for a career-high .306 in 2006, eclipsed .300 again in 2009 (.301), and like Young also entered 2012 with a .286 average.

As for other batting categories, Kevin Mitchell Award contender Prince Fielder of Rowdy has overtaken the league lead in the RBI race in the past two weeks, with 131, ahead of Hopatcong's Joey Votto (138), who enjoyed an 8-RBI night last week. Fielder also passed Jose Bautista of Hoboken in the home run race, holding a 51-49 advantage.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Showdown for the Kruk Division

Don't look now but there's another race to watch in the remaining days of the 2012 season.

After four straight wins -- including Tuesday night's no-hitter -- Hopatcong has tied Amityville for the third playoff seed. The Ant Slayers clinched the Drabek Division the other night. Coupled with Newark's loss on Wednesday, the Floating Fish go into tonight's season-ending series versus the Sugar Bears with a two-game lead in the Kruk Division.

After Wednesday's results, if the playoffs started today:
#1 Marietta*, 106-53
#2 Vancouver*, 92-68
#3 Amityville*, 88-71
#4 Hopatcong, 88-71
#5 Newark, 86-73
#6 Rowdy, 86-74
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Hoboken, 85-74 -- 1/2 game back of No. 6 seed
Bridgewater, 85-75 -- 1 1/2 back
Hillsborough, 83-76 -- 2 1/2 back

In an amazing coincidence, every team in the Kruk and Van Slyke divisions won Tuesday night as every team in the Drabek and Fisk divisions lost, leaving the playoff race essentially intact, other than the official elimination of Sardine City.

Should Hopatcong and Amityville remain tied for the No. 3 seed at the end of 162 games, the tiebreaker is head-to-heard record, which would go to -- no one! The two teams split 10 games this season! Both teams also are 21-18 within their respective divisions as they face off against division foes this weekend. If the tiebreaker gets that far, Hopatcong currently has a run differential of +114 while Amityville has a margin of +96.

Of course, those tiebreakers all get thrown out the window if Newark sneaks away with the Kruk Division, the only division still undecided. (FYI, Sugar Bears are 4-6 versus Amityville). With a two-game lead, Hopatcong needs just one win in their head-to-head matchup versus the Sugar Bears this weekend to clinch it. Head-to-head this season, Hopatcong holds a 7-4 advantage against Newark. Scheduled starters for both clubs look like this:
NWK @ HPG
Harrison (6-8, 3.91) v. Peavy (0-0, 0.00)
Baker (12-11, 3.47) v. Cain (13-8, 3.44)
Lohse (14-8, 3.37) v. Luebke (13-8, 3.70)
In a surprise move, Hopatcong opted to give Jake Peavy his first start of the season in Game No. 160 over Tim Stauffer, who's struggled much of the year, going 5-17 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Whether Newark wins the Kruk or not, the Sugar Bears still have work to do. They hold just a 1/2-game lead on Rowdy for the 5th seed and other squads are hot on their heels. The Roddy Pippers, who are off today, are just 1/2 game up on Hoboken and 1 game ahead of Bridgewater for that final playoff seed.

Rowdy will finish the season with two games at St. Louis and Bridgewater is also off today before a two-game set at Philly tomorrow. Starting tonight, Hoboken hosts three games against Marietta, which already has clinched the No. 1 seed.

Still hanging on to a sliver of hope is Hillsborough, which sent ace Justin Verlander to the mound yesterday for his final start of the season, and sits 2 1/2 games back of Rowdy for the final seed. The Hit Men will be rooting for Philly, Marietta, St. Louis and Hopatcong to win this weekend while they aim for a sweep in Amityville, who they're 7-4 against this season. The probable starter matchups:
HIL @ AMI
Hernandez (15-9, 3.81) v. Lester (16-6, 4.66)
Haren (12-9, 3.49) v. Weaver (14-11, 4.65)
Scherzer (6-16, 6.36) v. Hamels (14-10, 4.16)

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Tomlin Tosses No-Hitter For Hopatcong

In a year of many firsts for the Hopatcong franchise, Josh Tomlin threw the first no-hitter in Floating Fish history Tuesday night, downing Livingston 5-0 in the midst of a heated pennant race. It was the second no-hitter in the league this season and the 11th in league history. Just last month, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Motte combined to fire Sardine City's first no-hitter.

The Floating Fish gave Tomlin some breathing room with single runs in each of the first three innings and Tomlin ended up facing the minimum 27 batters. He walked Jimmy Rollins leading off the fourth but B.J. Upton promptly grounded to second for a double play. Tomlin's only other blemish, another leadoff walk, this time to Danny Espinosa in the 6th, also was erased via the twin killing, when Justin Smoak grounded to second to end the inning, after Jonathan LuCroy reached on a fielder's choice. Smoak later flied out to left to end the game.

Adding to the excitement, Brett Gardner pulled off a rare steal of home in the 6th inning, with Chase Headley taking second base, and the Floating Fish faithful packing The Mud Hole were on their feet the rest of the way. While Hopatcong improved to a franchise-record 87-71, remaining a game ahead of Newark in the Kruk Division, the first-year Livingston Last Place dropped to 47-111, long ago clinching the most balls in the draft lottery.

Tomlin struck out 5 and walked 2, improving to 16-7 and lowered his ERA to an even 3.00, and WHIP to 1.04 (both categories are second in the league trailing only Justin Verlander). He's been among the Floating Fish's most consistent pitchers all season, leading the squad with 16 wins and 5 complete games, including 2 shutouts. Perhaps it was the all-star snub that fueled Tomlin's fire all season. Despite a 9-3 and a 2.80 ERA at the break, as well as being among the league leaders in QS%, R/9 and OPS, Tomlin wasn't selected though he did receive votes.

The 27-year-old righthander was taken by Hopatcong with the 3rd pick of the 5th rounder (67th overall) this year. Last season, he made 28 starts for Newark, after the Sugar Bears used a supplemental 7th round pick (77th overall) on him. He finished 2011 with a respectable 1.14 WHIP and 4.08 ERA but a not-so-respectable 6-15 record for a Newark team that lost a franchise-record 113 games.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Playoff Race Tightens With Little Decided

Some critical matchups over the weekend did little to quell the uncertainty of the playoff race as the 2012 regular season heads in the final week.

Rowdy (84-73) will begin play today in a tie with Hoboken (84-73) for the 6th and final playoff spot as they prepare for a three-game series at Hillsborough. After reeling off five straight wins, the Hit Men (82-74) now sit just 1 1/2 games back of a wild card but also 5 games behind Drabek division leader Amityville (87-69), whom they face in a season finale series this weekend. The Ant Slayers, with a magic number of 2 to clinch the division, host St. Louis (72-85) for a three-game series starting tonight.

Scheduled starters for Rowdy include two pitchers acquired before the trade deadline while Hillsborough counters with its ace in the third game:
RWD @ HIL
Lee (4-3, 5.31/10-8, 4.38) v. Scherzer (6-15, 6.27) 
Colon (4-3, 4.34/7-9, 3.55) v. Neimann (0-2, 6.12)
Gallardo (8-11, 5.80) v. Verlander (18-8, 2.67)
Meanwhile, a three-game set in Bridgewater looks like it could be a play-in game of sorts between the Mallers and Straphangers. Bridgewater (83-74) is just a game out of a wildcard and Sardine City (81-76) continues to cling to hope, 2 games back of the Mallers and 3 games out of the playoffs -- with 5 to play. Bridgewater lost two out of three to Hopatcong over the weekend in a critical series while Sardine City has won 4 of its last 5, including a sweep of Philly.

Neither Doug Fister nor Javier Vazquez, two starters the teams swapped earlier this year, figure to be among the probable starters in this showdown:
SAR @ BRI
Bailey (7-9, 4.56) v. Beckett (10-9, 3.61) 
Morrow (10-14, 4.67) v. Ogando (12-11, 4.62)
Detweiler (3-4, 6.75) v. Beachy (16-6, 4.75)
If the season ended today, playoff seedings would look like this:
No. 1 Marietta*
No. 2 Vancouver*
No. 3 Amityville
No. 4 Hopatcong
No. 5 Newark
No. 6 Rowdy/Hoboken
* Clinched playoffs

In this scenario, Hoboken and Rowdy would play a one-game playoff to determine the final seed, with the winner facing Amityville while Kruk division rivals Newark (84-72) and Hopatcong (85-71) would duel in the other first-round series. The two appear headed for a potential division title-deciding three-game series to end the regular season, with the runner-up hoping to be in the mix for a wild card. Marietta (103-53) and Vancouver (91-66) would earn first-round byes.
***
In other news over the weekend, Marietta's R.A. Dickey took the loss versus St. Louis, dropping to 18-5, and with just one start remaining, has lost his chance to be the league's only 20-game winner in 2012. Dickey had a respectable 8-inning, 6-hit, 4-run performance against the Farrakhans, but St. Louis prevailed, 6-2. Newark's James Shields and Hillsborough ace Justin Verlander have matched Dickey for the league lead with 18 wins. All three figure to be in the mix for the Ben McDonald Award.

Friday, August 24, 2012

And Down The Stretch They Come!

Fewer than a dozen games remain in the 2012 DMBL season for most teams and while there's some uncertainty left as to seeding, the real drama looks like who will clinch the final few playoff spots.

The Marietta juggernaut (100-52) wrapped up its division last week and will secure the top seed. With their divisions safely in hand, Vancouver (87-66, with a magic number of 1) and Amityville (85-67/4) could battle for seeding in the final week. The difference between a No. 2 and No. 3 seed is a first-round bye.

The only division that seems to be left up for grabs is the Kruk, which also looks like it'll play a major role in determining the wild cards; it's conceivable that three of the four teams could be in the postseason. Newark, Hopatcong and Bridgewater have traded wins and losses for a few weeks, staying with a few games of one another.

Entering Thursday's action, the Sugar Bears held the division lead by just 1/2 game over the Floating Fish, who were only a 1/2 game ahead of the Mallers for the 6th and final playoff seed. After Thursday's games, it was Hopatcong (82-70) leading the division by a 1/2 game over Newark (82-71) and Bridgewater (82-71)!

Hopatcong will make the trip down 280 to Newark for a season-ending three-game series that potentially could crown the division champion -- or maybe the division's lone playoff representative. But before that, the Floating Fish have to go down 287 to Bridgewater this weekend in a three-game set that could provide some separation. Probable starters in the series line up like this:
HPG - Collmenter (12-12, 4.54) v. BRI - Beachy (16-5, 4.52)
Stauffer (5-16, 6.15) v. Lincecum (6-1, 2.93 w/ BRI; 13-6, 3.28)
Cain (12-8, 3.53) v. Vazquez (1-6, 5.67 w/ BRI; 8-10, 3.43)
As for the wild cards, current Van Slyke runner-up Rowdy (83-70) enters Friday's games with a slim one-game lead on Newark and Bridgewater, with division rival Hoboken (81-72) just two games behind. That scenario sets up a playoff-like atmosphere at Rowdy this weekend where the Cutters come in for three games. The pitching matchups in Rowdy appear to be:
HBK - Jurrjens (14-13, 4.34) v. RWD - Gallardo (8-11, 5.65)
Kuroda (5-10, 5.67) v. Sabathia (13-10, 4.91)
Kershaw (13-5, 3.57) v. Wilson (12-8, 4.01)
Until this week, Hillsborough (78-74) and Sardine City (79-75) were still in the thick of the hunt and while there's been some separation in the past few days, these two just won't go away - both still stand within 3 1/2 games of the final seed after winning Thursday night with 10 and 9 games to go, respectively. Hillsborough faced among the most daunting final two weeks, with eight of its final 14 games against playoff contenders. Rowdy has nine of its final 13 against contending squads.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Dickey The First To 18 Wins

R.A. Dickey of Marietta became the first 18-game winner in the league, and with two potential starts on the schedule, is the only starter left still with a shot at a 20-win season. The 18 wins also matched a career high he achieved last year with Hillsborough.

Dickey went 8 innings Tuesday night in a 9-5 win over Sardine City at PETCO Park, his 19th quality start of the season. His next scheduled start looks like it'll be at home versus St. Louis in game one of Sunday's doubleheader. If he wins that one, Dickey would take the mound looking for win No. 20 in the second game of the season finale series at Hoboken.

In addition to leading the league in wins, Dickey is tops in winning percentage at .818 (18-4) and likely to hold on to that lead regardless. It helps that his Mighty Men teammates give him an average 6.2 runs per game, bested only by the 6.5 per game for Bridgewater's Brandon Beachy.

Dickey may not finish the year as the league leader in wins, as Newark's James Shields (17-10) and Hillsborough's Justin Verlander (17-8) are hot on his tail. With two more potential starts, Beachy (16-5) and Jon Lester of Amityville (16-6) could still match Dickey.

In 30 starts this year, Dickey sports a 3.29 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, with three complete games and shutout.

The 37-year-old knuckleballer was taken 8th in the 6th round (88th overall) of this year's draft, after being left unprotected by Hillsborough in the offseason. Dickey went 18-9 for the Hit Men last year, with a 3.42 ERA in 30 starts, including four complete games.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

A Big Sunday For Halladay & Howard

Ryan Howard belted his 300th career home run on Sunday afternoon, becoming the 22nd player in league history to get to 300. He's the second player to reach 300 during this season, with a few more possibly still to come in 2012. Rowdy's Lance Berkman pelted No. 300 earlier this year and sitting on the cusp of 300, going into Wednesday's matchups, are Hoboken's David Ortiz at 298 and Bridgewater's Carlos Beltran at 297.

Howard has hit 14 home runs in 54 games (after Tuesday's win) since coming to Vancouver from Philly in exchange for a first-round pick. Used mainly as a DH, with some time at 1B, Howard has a line of .250/.311/.515 during his time in Vancouver after hitting just 12 home runs in 77 games with Philly, including .226/.315/.412.

In game one of Sunday's doubleheader, Howard launched a solo home run after teammate John Mayberry's solo home run, chasing Marietta starter David Price in the fourth inning for this 300th. The Fisters ultimately fell, 9-7, to the Mighty Men.

Roy Halladay pitched a complete game shutout Sunday afternoon, breaking a tie with Kevin Brown for fourth place all-time in complete games. The righthander now has 71 complete games, trailing only future Hall of Famers Roger Clemens (84), Curt Schilling (87) and Greg Maddux (104). It also was his 22nd career shutout, putting him within two of Brown for second and within 10 of Maddux, the all-time leader with 32 shutouts.

Halladay went the distance in Hoboken's 11-0 thrashing of Sardine City on Sunday, limiting the Straphangers to four hits while striking out five and walking two. It was his first shutout and second complete as a Cutter, improving to 5-4 in 11 starts with a 4.62 ERA since being shipped from Philly, along with a 6th rounder, in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton. Combined, Halladay is now 14-8 with a 3.24 ERA, including seven complete games (second only to James Shields of Newark with nine) and three shutouts.